Fantasy Football, Focusing on your Bills.

Lately, the fantasy picture for the Bills has been lukewarm at best. There is, however, cause for excitement this year as the Bills have made several key additions from a fantasy football perspective.  The Bills added aging but top receiver in T.O. and they drafted a pass catching tight end and a pass rusher.  Another thing happened in the off season: Marshawn Lynch got in trouble…again.  All of these moves are great for the team (well, not Marshawn getting arrested) but from a fantasy football perspective it creates some interesting dilemmas.

The key questions to ask yourself in the upcoming fantasy draft are… How many balls will Lee Evans have thrown to him? Will Fred Jackson get the start while Marshawn sits?  Will Trent Edwards have time to find his receivers? Can the defense formulate a good enough pass rush to play a factor in fantasy football?

First, we start with T.O., the talented but often malcontent wide receiver.  Often, he is a second round choice; he still has the viability as a dynamic play-maker.  While the addition of Owens doesn’t so much change his draft position, it does affect Lee Evans.   The beauty of Terrell Owens becoming a Buffalo Bill is that Lee Evans will be severely under valued on many draft boards.  No matter what type of league you are in, this is a prime time to invest in Lee Evans at a lower cost.  With Owens having Trent Edwards as a quarterback it will be interesting to see how much that will affect Terrell’s value.  Terrell Owens also affects Trent Edwards stock.  As Edwards is still unproven it may be a good time to stock up on other key positions and pick up Edwards in later rounds.

Trent Edwards stock is interesting as he gained a threat in Terrell Owens but lost LT Jason Peters.  I don’t think the loss of Jason Peters will be as significant as many will lead you to believe.  In 2008, Jason Peters allowed 11.5 sacks.  To put it into perspective, Duane Brown (Texans) had the same amount of sacks allowed.  The difference is Brown played all 16 games and Peters played 13 games.  As a side note, they tied for the most sacks allowed.  Am I saying Jason Peters is an overrated player? Not really.  But I am saying that Trent Edwards’ production will not be affected as severely as many believe now that Peters is gone.  So this would be a great time to buy Trent Edwards cheap.

Marshawn, Marshawn, Marshawn…Can you please enter a season without adding to your criminal record?  I am very concerned with the production of Marshawn Lynch.  After watching him last year, one thing became painfully clear: he was unable to replicate the things that made him successful in his rookie year.  The major issue with Marshawn Lynch is he has problems following his blockers and finding his lanes.  If you watch tape of his rookie season, Marshawn would stay behind his blockers, allow them to make first contact, and then explode into the lane.  Last year was a different story.  Although some of the blame can be put on to the offensive line, it is unfair to hold Marshawn blameless.   I would shy away from drafting Marshawn as his performance last year was not impressive enough for a high pick in any fantasy draft.  I would also shy away from Marshawn as he will be serving a three game suspension to start the year.

But when one door closes another opens.  This is the case for Fred Jackson.  Jackson is a great complimentary back to Lynch when Lynch is running well. On his own, Jackson could have the same impact Michael Turner had when he was with the Chargers and then with Atlanta.  Jackson has impressive hands and gets great YAC (yards after catch).  He also showed an ability to follow his blockers, which lead to some impressive rushes.  As long as the Bills choose to lead with Fred Jackson while Marshawn sits for three games instead of splitting time with Dominic Rhodes, this may be a great opportunity to get some really good production from a less costly running back.  I think Fred Jackson could be a sleeper this year, and if given the opportunity could out perform Marshawn Lynch.  Draft wisely. Marshawn may be the starter, but Jackson will have a three game audition.  If last year was any indication of how good Jackson can be, you may find value in the later rounds or on the waiver wire with Fred Jackson.

Buffalo’s defence is the most difficult to predict.  Although they ranked in the upper half last year in team defense, they did not fare as well in fantasy value.  They were 19th in points allowed, 28th in Sacks, 27th in INT, 21st in passes defended, 17th in solo tackles.  Not the greatest numbers to bank your fantasy season on.  The Buffalo Bills have had difficulty creating turnovers and applying preasure on the QB.  These are the foundation for fantasy football team defence.  The only thing they really have going for them is their impressive special teams.  One thing you will learn about me, I am a big fan of Bobby April.  He continuosly ranks in the top 3 for special teams year in and year out.  This year should be no different.  My suggestion, do not draft Buffalo as your primary team defence.  Although the addition of Drayton Florence will help the secondary, it is better to wait and make sure it translates into turnovers.

Regardless of what happens, I know one thing, I always need to have one Bill represented on my Fantasy Team.  Hopefully this year, it doesn’t have to be Rian Lindell.

Tags: Bobby April, Dominic Rhodes, Drayton Florence, Duane Brown, Fantasy Football, Fred Jackson, Jason Peters, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, Rian Lindell, Terrell Owens, Trent Edwards