Ghosts of Drafts Past – What I Am Looking Out For As The 2010 Mock Draft Approaches

All of us folks within the Fanball network have decided to hold a mock 2010 draft.  Everyone is welcome to track our progress and opinions as to why we selected the player we did.  As the person responsible for Buffalo’s 9th overall selection it is my duty in this mock draft to pick the player I feel will provide Buffalo with the best opportunity to win.  Although, in my last article I explain which player I felt the Bills should target, and explained a little as to why that position would be beneficial to fill over the others, I want to change gears a little bit.  As I inch closer to my selection I want to make sure I not only fill a need but I also want to combine that with picking the best available player.

This leads me to my main focus, it is the one subject that is brought up every draft, but is only uttered again if a player goes bust.  I am talking about the process of “reaching” for a player.  Widely considered the biggest draft bust in the history of the NFL, Ryan Leaf had a terrible NFL career.  But, even though he is a huge bust, I hesitate to consider him the worst bust in recent memory.  The reason for this is simple, he was projected to go that high and had the talent, up until that point, to match.  A player I would consider a bigger bust would be Akili Smith, who did not have the same level of talent and was a reach when Cincinnati decided to spend a high draft choice on him.

So when we look at Buffalo I think about the many reaches that worked or didn’t work.  In 2003 Buffalo employed the strategy of taking the best player on the board.  With that mindset they ended up taking injured-but amazing running back Willis McGahee.  This worked out very well for them, but at the same time they already had a fairly productive running back in Travis Henry.  Buffalo ended up missing out on TE Dallas Clark (a position Buffalo still hasn’t filled until hopefully last years draft choice Shawn Nelson).  Buffalo also missed out on the one guy I thought was the best running back in the draft, maybe because I love Penn State, Larry Johnson.  But, McGahee had dropped from several peoples draft board and some thought he may even go in the second or even third round.  Ultimately, Travis Henry was jettisoned from Buffalo and McGahee would eventually decide he no longer wanted to be a Buffalo Bill, great job.  As for Dallas Clark, well I am sure we all know by now.

In 2004, Buffalo did a great job with the drafting of Lee Evans, filling a much needed void.  In this case they were able to match need with quality.  But then Buffalo did something shocking.  They already had a quality QB in Drew Bledsoe who was only 32 years old at the time.  But Buffalo decided to trade for another first round pick and chose QB J.P. Losman.  Yes, in hindsight we can obviously say Losman was a bust, but that isn’t what I am addressing.  Losman was a reach, and worse than that, we traded for the right to reach for him.  At this point Buffalo still had several holes in their lineup that they could have filled.  In Buffalo’s attempt to reach for Losman they passed on guys who I still remember I was high on like guards Chris Snee, Jake Grove or my favorite player going into that draft and still to this day, linebacker Karlos Dansby.

In 2006 Buffalo drafted safety Donte Whitner.  The pick shocked many but didn’t disappoint.  He was a slight reach but proved to be a very good player through his rookie season.  But Buffalo decided to go the same route as in 2004 and once again traded for a second first round pick.  This time they decided it was time to reach for a defensive player, DT John McCargo.  Yes Buffalo’s defensive line needed help, but, John-freaking-McCargo?  Buffalo passed on some pretty hyped up players in positions of serious need like TE Mercedes Lewis, DE Mathias Kiwanuka, and my favorite from this draft LB DeMeco Ryans, and the logical selection I thought which would have been tackle Winston Justice.

Finally in 2008 Buffalo did it right by selecting Leodis McKelvin with their first round pick in the draft.  Unfortunately they couldn’t get it right in the second round.  Buffalo was on the clock and decided to go wide receiver.  Lee Evans has needed help since he became a Buffalo Bill, and finally the Bills front office was going to reward him with someone who would take away some pressure.  That was the thought at least.  Instead of picking highly ranked DeSean Jackson or Eddie Royal, heck even Malcolm Kelly was there, Buffalo decided to pick the giant James Hardy.  The hope was he could be a threat much like Moss has been in his career.  The difference that Buffalo did not account for is that Moss has intangibles that make him one of the greatest receivers of our time.  Heck, hasn’t Matt Jones proven you need more than just height.

These are not “after the fact” examples as most draft boards had the players I have mentioned as alternatives, ranked above the players the Bills took unnecessary risks on.  Even worse, as in 2004, Buffalo wasted a pick on a QB they didn’t actually need instead of drafting an offensive lineman or London Fletcher’s eventual replacement.  The reason I bring up the ghost of drafts past is to show the importance of filling holes and not just drafting the “sexy” pick.  The other thing it is important to do is to not reach.  Reaching is a GM’s enormous ego getting in the way of common sense.  It is a GM saying to every other scout, GM, Owner, Commentator, Fan, and Coach, “I am smarter than you and you don’t know a thing.”  The end result is less Marquees Colstons and more Akili Smiths.

In the fantasy world we see it all the time, only we call it our “sleeper” pick.  Sleepers and reaching are one in the same.  I am sure some of you fantasy owners have seen it before, the dude that decides he is going to be way smarter than everyone else and picks Chester Taylor in the first round because he has a hunch that Adrian Peterson will go down with an injury in week one and then who will look like the idiot then?  Hmmmmm?  Hmmmmm?  We have all seen that guy, and we all hate having him around.  It’s the same in the NFL draft, that is why Raider fans can’t wait for Davis to kick the bucket, and why Colts fans are rewarded with winning season after winning season.

So approaching our mock draft I have to keep things in perspective and weigh the options logically.  I have to ask myself some very key questions:

1.  Can I fill this via free agency?

2.  Can I fill this via trade?

3.  Will adding youth to the position I draft hurt the team or possibly make it better?

4.  Is the best player available one who will fill a spot this year or next year?

5.  What position is ultimately the only position I will have the most difficulty filling via draft or trade and has the highest rated player left on the board?

The reason I ask these 5 questions is simple, I need to make sure I don’t screw it up.  I am a firm believer that this is not the year Buffalo should draft a LT with their first pick.  I do believe this line needs a veteran to help mentor and lead this very young line.  I also believe that Buffalo switching to the 3-4 makes drafting a DE impossible as their are no DE’s worthy of the 9th overall pick that can ultimately play the 3-4.  Also their are no defensive ends worthy of a 9th over all selection who can be converted to linebacker to play in the 3-4.  Buffalo also needs a WR, but with the ninth pick of the draft that is an impossibility.  Buffalo may have a chance at a QB with Jimmy Claussen and Sam Bradford possibly being passed over by teams with a much more serious need.  But Buffalo has been down this road before, and this team is not ready to have another rookie QB standing behind centre.  Buffalo is also not ready to ruin the career of yet another young QB.  Since neither is a Manning type lock, maybe Buffalo should go the unconventional route and pick up a linebacker.  If Urlacher, Zach Thomas, and Ray Lewis have taught us anything, it is that top flight middle linebackers can change the face of a defence, a locker room, and a franchise.

Buffalo should try and solidify their already thin linebacking.  It has been a far too overlooked position and could finally be the perfect mixture of need finally meeting with available talent at the ninth overall pick.

Tags: 2010 Draft, Buffalo Bills, Fanball